Saturday, January 29, 2005

One Good Thing

Juan Cole reports the results of a poll of Iraqis by Zogby

I think most Americans will be baffled by having all these flavors of Islam. Oddly enough, US taxpayers are are paying for supporting one or another flavor, and having US soldiers die to make this or that flavor ascendent., with no real clue about what that means.

I know a bit of this arcana and I don't want US soldiers dying to establish a Shiite theocracy, which may happen even though Americans say it should not happen. Funnily enough, I recently ran across a strong booster of Bush's policy who quieted down when I asked him a simple geopolitical question: why the Turks may be interested in the outcome of the election, and why Turkey may take military action in Iraq based on the political landscape there. This fellow had no idea why Turkey had any interest in the political structure in Iraq. I didn't even get into discussing why tribes are so important in Iraq, and why tribes are not just a faraway schema like something out of "Dances with Wolves."

But this polling from Zogby is a bit of good news, at least for the time being:

Iraqis who would support a religious government: 33%
I bet that number isn't far from any true polling in Iran about religious government. Stilll, Iran has a theocracy. And is building nukes.

If the US attacks Iran, how likely is it that the number supporting a theocracy would go up?

Ask Condi Rice. I'm sure she has an opinion, and that opinion will be proven wrong in six months.

1 comment:

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